Friday, April 18, 2008

Market view next week


NIFTY failed to cross 5000 thrice in last one month. It seems in range of 4600-5000


Market is good for trader. Avoid BUY and HOLD strategy for sometime and do intraday.
Pick liquidity stocks these days rather than MIDCAP or PENNY.
Good trading stocks: NIFTY, RELIANCE, RPOWER, EDUCOMP, SUZLON, RNRL
Keep booking profit here and there rather than FINAL target
Book profit if you are long in RPL, EDUCOMP, RNRL

Monday, April 7, 2008

Potential Meanings from Volume and Open Interest Changes

Price Rising, VOLUME dropping and OPEN INTEREST dropping:
Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an OPEN LONG. Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions and closing winning long positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Should prices be falling when this scenario develops, the market has a higher probability of a price rise at some point forward.

Price Rising, VOLUME rising and OPEN INTEREST rising:
Market is attracting larger numbers of traders willing to open positions from the long side and hold them. Traders are more confident that prices will continue to climb in favor of a working long. This scenario is a good clue that UPTREND is secure and that the trend may continue further for a period of time.
Should this scenario develop while prices are falling, it is a good indication that DOWNTREND is secure and that the trend may continue for a period of time.

Price Rising, VOLUME dropping and OPEN INTEREST rising:
Market is attracting LATE buyers and EARLY shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction but likely that that correction will be bought creating a buy point for UPTREND.
If this scenario should develop while prices are dropping, it is a good indication that a sharp rally against DOWNTREND will develop creating a sell point for DOWNTREND.

Price Rising, VOLUME rising and OPEN INTEREST falling:
Market has a lot of traders initiating from both sides but larger traders may be liquidating into the higher prices. The market may be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter-timeframe traders attempt to trade from both sides of the market but liquidating before end-of-day. Often a signal of a market turn near-term or continued volatility. More common at significant tops (or bottoms).

Volume and Open Interest

It’s my opinion that successful trading for the long term is not possible without a sound understanding of both trader psychology and market psychology. Often individual traders focus so heavily on the results they are seeking that they forget that every other trader out there is doing the same thing: attempting to profit from price action. But it is the very nature of this conflict that creates price action because it is physically impossible for every executed trade to show a profit once each contract executed is liquidated. Futures trading is structured as a zero-sum environment. This means that in order for a price to print, BOTH a buying order and a selling order must be matched at the current traded price; otherwise no trade happens and no new price will print. Therefore, the issue of potential price change from orders being placed and filled is what ultimately creates the price action traders are attempting to capture as a profit to their individual accounts. As competing orders are matched, resulting in EITHER more futures contracts initiating a new position or closing an old open position (regardless of profit or loss to an individual account) is the issue of VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST.

One of basics to better understanding VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST is to understand it from the point of view that it represents individual traders who all can’t be right as far a profit is concerned. Someone must liquidate to take a loss. Since most traders have a large portion of losing trades as their results over time; it follows that a lot of what is causing a price change MUST be losing trades being liquidated. By understanding that a large portion of VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST (when it changes) must mean a CHANGE in the value of someone’s account balance; it becomes a bit better to understand where and when a turn in the market might be coming. Why? Because the people who helped put prices where they are now may have left the market completely; someone else has taken their place or not—that person has a completely different point of view on the market price and he might be in the wrong place too. He will liquidate sooner or later as well. With that in mind, let’s discuss someone the basics of VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST.

VOLUME is the total number of contracts being trading for a period of time. You can think of VOLUME as the AMOUNT of orders passing through the market place as a total; most commonly calculated on a per day basis (daily VOLUME)

OPEN INTEREST is the total number of contracts that remain open and held through at least one trading day (Overnight at least) You can think of OPEN INTEREST as the number of contracts someone is willing to hold at least for a period of time needed to realize a profit or loss.

When VOLUME is HIGH; individual traders in large numbers are participating.
When VOLUME is LOW; traders are not participating to a large degree.
When OPEN INTEREST is RISING; traders are opening positions and assuming the risk that price will create a gain for them over at least one day.
When OPEN INTEREST is FALLING; traders are closing positions (liquidating) and they are EITHER accepting their loss or taking their profit.

The study of VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST is the study of “Who is participating and are they getting in or out with a gain or loss?” Discerning what this means to potential price movement coming over the next period of time forward is where VOLUME and OPEN INTEREST can be a good clue as to whether a market is ready to fall in price or rise in price.

Good Luck!

Monday, March 31, 2008

1st April

Hi,
It proved that we had polished bull run on friday. Market surprised all who were in impression of 5200 today. Yesterday recommended to buy 4800 PUT it doubled today.
NIFTY FUT OI up 1% with 2% decreasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions and forming of fresh short positions too. NIFTY FUT will more weak till below 4830 levels. Aggressive NIFTY 5000 CE writing seen in today's Trade

NIFTY PCR: 1.19
Bullish stocks: RAJESHEXPO , NAUKRI
Bearish stocks: HINDUNILVR , TCS , JETAIRWAYS

Sunday, March 30, 2008

31st March

NIFTY FUT OI up with increasing volumes indicating bit of long positions. Long might be from retailer side as we got habbit bo buy in GREEN.

BUY NIFTY 4800 PUT CMP 105.50

Bullish stocks: LITL, APIL, VOLTAS

Bearish stocks: SAIL, HDFCBANK, BEL, YESBANK

Take your own decision

Lehman Alleges Japan Investment Fraud

Investment Bank Lehman Brothers to Sue Japanese Trading Firm Over Alleged Fraud

TOKYO (AP) -- Lehman Brothers is accusing a Japanese trading company of perpetrating a massive fraud and plans to sue it for hundreds of millions of dollars, officials at the U.S. investment bank said Sunday.

Lehman is seeking to recoup $350 million in defaulted loans, a company official said on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the case.

The bank loaned the money to a unit of LTT Bio-Pharma, according to Matthew Russell, a senior spokesman for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The subsidiary, a medical consulting company, filed for bankruptcy March 19, leaving investors stuck with millions in outstanding loans.

Russell said that Japanese trading giant Marubeni Corp. secured the loans and should repay them. The company's Japanese unit, Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., will file a civil suit Monday at the Tokyo District Court, Russell said.

Marubeni said in a statement Saturday that it did not secure the loans, and documents to that effect are fake. It contends that it is also a victim of the alleged fraud and therefore should not have to cover any damages.

The company fired two of its employees after acknowledging that they may have collaborated with the fund's managers to forge documents, according to the statement. It added that Marubeni has filed a separate criminal complaint against the fund's managers.

"We have nothing to do with the fraudulent acts, and we have no obligation to cover any repayment requests," Marubeni said.

Russell said that his company has been "working closely with the (Japanese) authorities on a fraud it uncovered that was perpetrated by employees at Marubeni ... at the company's offices." He said Lehman is among "several financial institutions and other parties" that have been allegedly defrauded.

Russell said meetings were held at Marubeni's office to discuss its securing of the loans before the agreement was struck late last year.

"Lehman Brothers is confident that it undertook all the appropriate measures on the transaction," Russell said, adding that his company "is confident in its legal case and fully expects its funds to be repaid."

Officials of LTT-Bio-Pharma, its bankrupt unit and its lawyer were not available for comment Sunday.

Source: Yahoo Business

Saturday, March 29, 2008

The Dragon catches a cold

Aslowing US economy, moderating Asia, and a government keen to cool the pace of growth may take their toll on the Dragon that has been seething fire since 1997.
The third reading of the US GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at 0.6 per cent annualised, on Thursday. This is the slowest growth since 2002 and pales in comparison to the third quarter growth rate of 4.9 per cent annualised. It is estimated that one percentage point slowdown in the US growth could cut 3.2 per cent from China’s export growth and will show up in the economic slowdown. Around 40 per cent of the Chinese GDP is accounted for by exports.

For February, China reported a 56 per cent drop in its trade surplus. China faced severe snowstorms in late January that coincided with the Chinese new year holidays in early February. Logistical issues may have impacted Chinese exports. But if the trade surplus does reduce in the following months, it would be a clear signal that Uncle Sam’s fever is giving China the shivers.

China faces an inflation which refuses to go away despite the CRR being hiked 15 times ? from 7.5 per cent in July 2006 to 15.5 per cent now. The People’s Bank of China, the nation’s central bank, hiked interest rates six times during 2007, with benchmark one-year loan interest rates at a nine-year high of 7.47 per cent. But those efforts have shown little effect on domestic inflation which is running at an 11 year-high of 9.7 per cent.

China’s economy grew by nearly 12 per cent last year, its fifth year of double-digit growth. Beijing plans to cut economic growth to 8 per cent this year from 11.4 in 2007, which is also likely to weigh on consumption.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, guzzling an estimated 4.5 million tonnes every year. A large part of that is used domestically but a lot also gets exported, contained in products from tubes and power cables to air-conditioners. However, the country’s copper imports fell 5 per cent in February from the previous month and could see a further slowdown as stocks in warehouses double. Steel and aluminium fabricators are beginning to feel the heat of the US slowdown and domestic demand will further slow with the tightening of credit.

China is an emerging great power but it is still a toddler in squeakies when it comes to stepping into the large shoes of Uncle Sam. Compared to the $9 trillion spent by US consumers per annum, the Chinese spend a measly $1 trillion.

China’s eastern neighbour, Japan, is doing well but the sudden appreciation of the yen could hurt its exports. Though exports account for just 17 per cent of Japan’s GDP, exportoriented companies in the Nikkei have a weight of around 40 per cent, making the Japanese stock markets more sensitive to yen appreciation than the economy.

South Korea’s National Pension Service, the world’s fifth largest, has said that it is looking at greener pastures than the US treasuries which are seeing plummeting yields. Though the fund holds just $14 billion in treasuries, the redemption pressure is increasing the need to seek better returns elsewhere. This needs to be seen in the background of a meeting last week in which 16 Asian nations discussed the possibility of investing around $1 trillion in each other’s bonds.

Amidst large I-banks, Lehman continues to be in the centre of market speculation. In times like this, companies would reduce the balance-sheet size by selling assets and retiring liabilities. But in Lehman’s case, the balance sheet grew by 13.7 per cent in the last quarter and the gearing increased to 31.7 times.

This is not a good scenario. The world markets are still holding together, taking solace from the bold stance of the Fed that it will do whatever is required to save the US economy, even if it means buying any amount of questionable securities from ailing firms.

Source: SMARTSHARE (Vinod K Sharma) Business Standard

The Ticking Bomb Called FII

You may either love them or hate them but you can't ignore them. Foreign institutional investment (FII) is crucial to Indian stock market and going by what we observe in the current market scenario they could almost decide the course of Indian equity market

There were days when a piece of news about foreign institutional investors' (FII) interest in any counter could spread frenzy and its price could zoom past all its historical levels. This has been happening for more than a decade. Any scrip that had invited FII interest would soon
become the darling of the operators and investors. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to
claim that FIIs determined the course of the market direction for such a long time. As a
result the market has seen counters zipping through new highs and investors pocketing
handsome profits in the past few years. As of March 2008, FIIs have invested about Rs 6
lakh crore in various companies and the stake of these institutions is more than 20
per cent individually. But what we have been seeing in the recent past in the market has remarkably changed the perception and the decade long boon has almost become the biggest curse for Indian stocks riding on FII. To be fair, we can't blame the FIIs for their pull out
because they are forced to save their interest by exiting from the emerging markets so as to give support to their crippled parental counterpart in the US. This is the main reason for their exit
from India. The quantum of the sellout can be gauged from the fact that in the first fortnight
of March alone FIIs sold shares worth Rs 1762.10 crore and in 2008 they have sold
Rs 13064.60 crore, which is just 18 per centof the total investment of Rs 71486.50 crore
made by them in 2007.

What we see in Indian stock market, to a certain extent, is the aftermath of the US
slowdown and the crackdown in the financial sector in the US. This has led to an
unprecedented crisis globally which made FII investments in India vulnerable.
Therefore, shares having more FII investments were more prone to the freefall in the
recent crash in the capital markets than the isolated stocks. We have seen this on March
17 in the case of Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals. The stock tumbled 39.09
per cent on a single day on account of a selling spree by a major institution (rumor is
that it was the crippled financial institution Bear Stearns) together with margin call on a
particular portion of the promoters stock which was funded. This was followed by S
Kumars Nationwide, which went down by 21 per cent on March 24 based on rumors
that an off load by FII in a block deal of 12 lakhs shares. The share was trading at Rs
154 and came down crashing to Rs 83.70. However, the management denied any
involvement in the form of margin call selling pressure and the news of Bear Stearns
selling spree. On the FII part, Bear Stearns holds 59 lakh shares of the company which
works out to be 2.92 per cent of the total stake and it was reported that the management
doesn't hold any direct investment in S Kumars and the investment is in the form
of P-Note form only. There is also an interesting fact that in S Kumars FII holding is
to the tune of 40 per cent, which makes it more vulnerable to global pressures.

These are only few examples; but they portray the alarming situation that engulfs the
Indian capital market. This could just be the tip of the iceberg.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

28th March

Hi,
NIFTY FUT OI up 38% with 71% increasing volumes indicating rollover of short positions. NIFTY APRIL FUT series start with 1 Cr less Open Interest.
Watch downside 4775 and upperside 4910
Bullish stocks: IRB, APIL, RNRL
Bearish stocks: SUNTV, EKC

Good luck!

PUT CALL RATIO (27th March)


Hi,

PUT CALL RATIO seen 1.25

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Must Read Book

You must read this book. It's written in easy language. Try to spend some time on this book.I got interest by reading first chapter only.Just to make you interested: 1st ChapterI went to work when I was just out of grammar school. I got a job as quotation-boardboy in a stockbrokerage office. I was quick at figures. At school I did three years ofarithmetic in one. I was particularly good at mental arithmetic. As quotation-board boy Iposted the numbers on the big board in the customers' room. One of the customersusually sat by the ticker and called out the prices. They couldn't come too fast for me. Ihave always remembered figures. No trouble at all.There were plenty of other employees in that office. Of course I made friends with theother fellows, but the work I did, if the market was active, kept me too busy from tena.m. to three p.m. to let me do much talking. I don't care for it, anyhow, during businesshours.But a busy market did not keep me from thinking about the work. Those quotations didnot represent prices of stocks to me, so many dollars per share. They were numbers. Ofcourse, they meant something. They were always changing. It was all I had to beinterested in the changes. Why did they change? I didn't know. I didn't care. I didn'tthink about that. I simply saw that they changed. That was all I had to think about fivehours every day and two on Saturdays: that they were always changing.That is how I first came to be interested in the behaviour of prices. I had a very goodmemory for figures. I could remember in detail how the prices had acted on the previousday, just before they went up or down. My fondness for mental arithmetic came in veryhandy.

Download

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

27th March

Hi,
Expect volatility as expiry day of March. Good thing is we closed above 4820 trend line.
Watch NIFTY around 4760. If we sustain above then expiry may happy bulls. DOW -70 at 7:45 PM IST. If DOW close at this range surely we will see 4760 level. Trade fast and carefully as volatility would be there.
Bullish stocks: PURVA, TATACOM
Bearish stocks: BHUSANSTL, NDTV, ABB
---------------------------------------------------
Most of us have same question, where sensex & NIFTY heading? Sensex may rally upto 16660 help of GLOBAL MARKET only. This would be exit area NOT buying.
In medium term we are heading towards new low of 2008 in medium term.

It's my view only. Take your own decision in stock market.

Book profit "National Aluminium Company Limited" NALCO

Hi,

Thought sharing my view * on this counter. NALCO closed at 462 today. If you are long try to book profit at every rise. It may (may not) trade above 500 which would be exit or shorting point. OI continue decreasing with increasing volume which indicates bearish signal. Don't get surprise if we see around 300 in coming months.

It's my view* only. Take your own decision.

What to say POLISHED RALLY?

Hi,

Yesterday we had great polished rally yesterday. Some of us thought this is BULL RUN started? probably NOT! Have you seen volume and open interest? If this is bull run then where is open interest? Why we don't see open interest in stocks? Hope you got answer. It was pure POLISHED rally and short covering took place. Oh yes DOW helped in that. Nifty rallied by 265 points to close at 4877 level - very close to the levels which bulls want to see the market. But how many belived in the yesterday rally, to me not many if I go by the Volume and Open Interest data.

The market has seen huge surge in the Put Open Interest on a day when market rallied which indicate market is nervous about the current rally.

Well it's my view * you take your own decision before getting trapped in market.

Good Luck!

26th March PUT CALL RATIO

Hi,
Last day of expiry date of March and PCR looks quite interesting. Let's see who gonna win BULLS or BEARS. Today's PCR indicates market is in bears favor.

Look at below snap of CPR by strike wise.


call ITM strikes (4600 and 4700) has seen huge unwinding of OI positions - when you are sure market gonna rally then why would you unwind OI of call? only when you are not confident about the current rally as they expect the market will fall thus eroding their gains. PCR indicate lack of confidence in the market and its current direction. Let's see where operator put market on expiry day.
Good Luck!

Monday, March 24, 2008

25th March

NIFTY FUT OI up (both series) with decreasing volumes indicates rollover of short positions.
Watch NIFTY at lower side 4550 and upper side 4705

DOW up 225+ points. If it continue till closing then we may see GAPUP around 4700.
Very short time trend: BULLISH
Bullish stocks: ROLTA, MCDOWELL-N, RELIANCE
Bearish stocks: AXISBANK, AIAENG, TATATEA

PUT CALL RATIO











24th March

Hi,
Monday would be crucial day. lol "Every day is crucial for traders"
Investor: stay away as trend not yet clear
Trader: Be fast and follow GOLDEN RULE "Buy in panic and sell (short) at rise"
Last trading session, market could not sustain at higher level and finally closed below 4600 which indicates volatile with negative bias.
Watch NIFTY at lower side 4490 and higher side 4680
Bullish: ABB, TRIVENI, GAIL
Bearish: AXISBANK, WELGUJ, BPCL

Good Luck!

Sunday, March 23, 2008

PUT CALL RATIO

Hi,

Some of you might be interesting in PUT CALL RATIO. So here we go...


We see March CALL ratio is more where in APRIL PUT ratio is more.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

TATASTEEL

TATASTEEL BUY analysis by Emkay research

Do your own research before investing in equities.

Small Investor Be Damned

Who cares about the small investor? No one. Who claims to be concerned about this person? Everyone and his brother. The truth is that no one gives a damn.

Every now and then, at seminars and conferences, in discussions on television, radio and newspapers, politicians, bureaucrats, corporate captains and analysts pay lip service to the cause of the proverbial small investor. They wax eloquent about how the country's stock-markets would never become strong and about how sentiments would be driven by foreign institutional investors unless small investors entered the fray.Recent developments have reinforced some of the worst apprehensions of ordinary investors about capital markets that are widely perceived as gambling casinos where greed and fear are the dominant motivating factors.

Place the situation in its proper perspective. Investments in equity shares and other financial instruments including mutual funds account for barely 8 per cent of the total household savings in the country. Statistics put out by the Reserve Bank of India indicate that this proportion has varied between 4 per cent and 8 per cent over the last few years. Various studies conducted to calculate the total number of investors in India show that this proportion has hovered around 4 per cent of the country's total population.

Why is there such a crisis of confidence? Why is it commonly believed that the stock-markets are manipulated by speculators? Four years ago, in February 2003, a study was conducted by Prime Database headed by Prithvi Haldea -- may he recover soon after his sudden ailment -- had pointed out that the small investor in India had been being grossly neglected, thanks largely to an unfriendly policy regime framed by apathetic officials.The watchdog of the capital markets, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) defines a small investor as an individual who applies for up to 1,000 equity shares in a public issue without specifying the face value of the share. Haldea had argued that the limit should be specified in terms of a ceiling amount, say, Rs 25,000.He pointed out that the minimum percentage of the capital issued that has to be offered to the public has been coming down steadily over the years, from 60 per cent to 40 per cent and 25 per cent. In certain cases, this level was reduced to only 10 per cent. According to Haldea, “the guidelines relating to book-building, reservations and allocations have increasingly favoured the large investor".In the 10 per cent route specifically designed for big blue-chip companies, the allocation for small investors works out to a niggardly 2.5 per cent of the total issued capital. This is on account of the fact that of the company's total capital, 10 per cent is offered through the initial public offer (IPO), of which only 25 per cent is earmarked for small investors.In the 1980s, it used to be said that the average taxi-driver or waitress in Singapore had parked a portion of his/her savings in the stock exchanges. In the 1990s, one would hear of paan-stall owners on Mumbai's Dalal Street playing the markets. Where is the small investor today?Having burnt his/her fingers more than once, the individual investor belonging to the middle-class -he/she is not exactly poverty-stricken - is bound to become extremely cynical about parking his/her hard-earned savings in the stock-markets in general and equity issues in particular.

Take the case of the Reliance Power IPO. If the total offer amount is added up, the figure works out to more than one-sixth of India's gross domestic product (GDP). The issue was over-subscribed when markets were booming. By the time the shares were listed, markets had tanked. The 30-scrip sensitive index of the stock exchange at Mumbai had crashed 22 per cent between January 10 and February 11. Subscribers who had borrowed to invest in the IPO realized to their chagrin that far from doubling their money, they had ended up losers.

Thankfully, because the issue was heavily oversubscribed and each individual investor obtained only 15 shares, the losses on the first day were limited to Rs 700, Reliance Power officials have themselves acknowledged. But a few larger questions have been raised by the entire unseemly episode.

Promoters of companies are, at best, fair-weather friends. When the going is good, they will try and entice you with attractive claims. But when things go wrong, don't expect any sympathy, leave alone assistance. That the ordinary shareholder is seen as prey not as a partner does not augur well for the medium-term future of India's capital markets.

As for analysts, they are paid to be bullish. When did you last watch and hear a commentator on television saying bad times lie ahead? That question was rhetorical.

By Paranjoy Guha Thakurta Mar 21, 2008 valuesearchonline

Friday, March 21, 2008

BUY JBL

BUY JBL Analysis by Anagram

Aloha Airlines Files for Bankruptcy

Friday March 21, 2:38 am ET By Greg Small, Associated Press Writer
Aloha Airlines Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy; Blames 'Predatory Pricing' by Competitor
HONOLULU (AP) -- Aloha Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Thursday, a little more than two years after emerging from bankruptcy.
Aloha said it will continue to fly as long as a bankruptcy court accepts the airline's financial plan to keep operating. The airline said in its filing that it was unable to generate sufficient revenue due to what it called "predatory pricing" by Mesa Air Group Inc.'s go! airline.
Aloha Airgroup Inc. emerged from bankruptcy protection in February 2006, just 14 months after filing under Chapter 11.
Phoenix-based Mesa Air Group launched go! into the interisland market later in 2006 to compete with Aloha, as well as Hawaiian Airlines Inc. In January, go! reported a $20 million operating loss in its first 16 months of operations. Meanwhile, Aloha and Hawaiian reported combined losses of nearly $65 million since go! began operating.

Full article: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080321/aloha_bankruptcy.html

Happy Holi

May your life be covered with the Colors of joy, Colors of Friendship, Colors of Fun, Colors of Love, Colors of Happiness. On Holi and Always

DOW closed 261 points up what about NIFTY?

Indian stock market quite lucky that it was closed when DOW closed 290 points down. Yesterday DOW closed 261 points up still DOW is in negative of 30 points for Indian Stock Market.
Well, it would be good chance to book long on monday "If" you see pullback due to WORLD MARKET
One may consider short NIFTY or buy PUT on monday.
As per my view* NIFTY to trade around 4250 in short term.

Take your own call. Good luck!

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Pvt Banking & Cement Sector

Market Trend : Bearish
AXISBANK FUT OI up 28%
HDFC BANK FUT OI up 4%
ICICIBANK FUT OI up 4%
YESBANK OI up 26%
FEDERALBANK FUT OI up 1%.
Private Banks OI indicates short positions at lower levels too.
Cement
ACC FUT OI down 7%
AMBUJACEM FUT OI down 13%
GRASIM FUT OI up 8%,
INDIACEM FUT OI up 1%
ACC and AMBUJACEM OI indicates unwinding of long positions.
GRASIM, INDIACEM FUTS OI indicates short positions.

*Expect more down side...

Good Luck!

NIFTY View (24th March-28th March)

NIFTY FUT OI with decreasing volumes indicating short covering at lower levels. Despite Gap up opening NIFTY FUT failed to sustain at higher levels showing weakness.

NIFTY FUT OI down 8.14%, NIFTY FUT down 3.67% last week. Rollover of short positions also seen. 4700 CE indicates CALL writing on every rise.

NIFTY may break JAN's low this week (24th March-28th March).

NIFTY expiry target maybe below 4700

As per my view* NIFTY to trade around 4250 in short term.

Good Luck!

Inflation at 5.92% vs 5.11%

Inflation for the week ended March 8 stood at 5.92% as against 5.11% for the week ended March 1, reports CNBC-TV18. The market estimated it at 5.11%.

DOW

Steady Decline..
Dow drops from session's highs, remains within large trading range.
The Dow ended the day at highs after rallying over 600 points in the last two days. The Dow could be on the verge of much more strength, but we will need to watch 12,400 for signs of confirmation..."


The Dow opened the day testing the 12,400 level this morning, but was not able to hold above this zone, which essentially sparked a heavy decline the rest of the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow dropped 293 points on the session after rallying big yesterday, which means traders are not ready to commit to direction just yet.


The Daily and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to wind up within a large trading range that spans the first three months of the year. The market has been indecisive when testing waters outside of this range, which means more range movement is likely. Until the Dow can break and hold above 12,800 or below 11,700, further range movement should be expected.

Cement Sector

Cement sector analysis

ICICI BANK

ICICIBANK report - CITI

Advance Tax Numbers







Company Name Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2007
Ambuja Cements 170 100
Bank of India 191 150
Bank of Baroda 220 50
BPCL 240 275
Castrol 46 24
Central Bank of India 221 -
Dena Bank 50 10
HDFC Bank 250 165
ICICI Bank 250 125
Indian Hotels 44 2
IndusInd Bank 19 12
Larsen & Toubro 170 80
Mahindra & Mahindra 116 83
MRPL 100 20
Reliance Industries 443 118
SBI 1,418 690
Tata Chemicals 90 65
Tata Motors 75 190
Tata Power 43 -
TCS 115 20
Tech Mahindra - 6
Tata Steel 300 350
UltraTech Cement 155 110
Union Bank 130 100



F&O Indicator - 19th March

F&O CUE - Anagram

My First Blog Entry

Hi all,
My first blog entry at blogspot.com. First wanna thank Google for have created my weblog at blogspot.com. I have some principals objectives in my blog:
1 - To share related information on Indian Stock Market
2 - To publish some research output from various research centre
3 - Try to get market trend so we don't go against
4 - Offcourse to Multiply Money
5 - continuous learning

Good Luck!